Rick Lowe

The July Issue of Cato Unbound explored "What's Wrong with Expert Predictions".

Hope you can take the time to read them.

The summary for the lead essay follows:

"Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock review the not-too-promising record of expert predictions of political and social phenomena. The truth remains that for all our social science, the world manages to surprise us far more often than not. Rather than giving up or simply declaring in favor of populism, however, they suggest several ways to improve expert predictions, including greater attention to styles of thinking as well as a “forecasting tournament” in which different methodologies will compete against one another to gain empirical data about the process. Still, they concede that our ability to predict the future will probably always be sharply limited."

Read the Lead essay, Response essays and Conversation by clicking here…

Enjoy!